
The dollar strengthened against major currencies after hot October CPI data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials. Traders raised the probability of a 25-basis-point December hike to 87% from about 70% a month earlier, and the dollar rose 0.69% to 159.84 per yen.
The euro fell 0.65% to $1.11, its lowest since May 2025.
Higher expected US rates support the dollar, which tends to lower dollar-denominated commodity prices and makes US feed exports less competitive against weaker-currency suppliers such as Brazil and Argentina.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.