Dollar almost unchanged after reaching 19-month high, rate divergence in focus

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jul 30, 2025Dollar gains against peers after Fed leaves rates unchanged-0.0%
• Dec 18, 2024Dollar index hits two-year high after Fed delivers rate cut+0.7%
• Dec 15, 2016Dollar charges higher after Fed hikes rates+1.6%
• Feb 13, 2024US dollar rises to three-month high after inflation data, surges past 150 yen+0.1%
• Sep 30, 2021Dollar near one-year high as Fed tightening in focus | Reuters+0.0%

After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Dec 15, 2016Dollar charges higher after Fed hikes rates-2.2%
• Sep 14, 2023Dollar jumps to 6-month high after data, ECB announcement | Reuters-0.2%
• Nov 11, 2021Dollar rockets to 16-month highs after hot U.S. inflation; euro sinks | Reuters-1.4%
• Sep 28, 2023Dollar index powers to 10-month high - Business & Finance - Business Recorder+0.1%
• Oct 25, 2021Dollar rises from one-month low on prospect of higher interest rates | Reuters-0.7%