
The Agioi Fanendes, carrying about 40,000 tonnes of ULSD from Russia's Primorsk port, changed course roughly 400 nautical miles off New York and is sailing in a zigzag pattern with its destination listed as "for orders." The move follows a Putin-Trump agreement for Russia to supply diesel to the US and global markets. No Russian diesel cargo has yet reached the US.
If Russian diesel does not reach the US, the expected added supply will not ease tight distillate markets, keeping diesel prices elevated. Uncertainty over the deal supports diesel and freight costs for feed transport.
After 26 past bullish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -5.6% to +1.6%), and -4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.