Dalian soymeal futures (2701 contract) closed up about 1.7% at 3,139 yuan/t, while Tianjin spot rose to 3,200 yuan/t. The USDA November report raised US 2026/27 soybean exports to 1.72 billion bushels and cut ending stocks to 300 million bushels, and Brazil's soybean export forecast for November rose to 4.37 million tonnes.
Stronger US export demand and tighter US stocks support soymeal costs, but weak downstream hog and poultry margins and high domestic meal inventories cap the rally for Chinese buyers. Price direction stays mixed until South American weather changes crop expectations.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.