
Brent fell $1.14 to $91.62 a barrel and WTI fell $1.04 to $85.49 on Thursday. The drop followed hopes for progress in Middle East and Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators agreed a major prisoner exchange in Abu Dhabi, but territorial differences remain.
Expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine lower the risk premium on crude, which feeds through to diesel, fertilizer and biofuel margins. Easing Black Sea tensions could also eventually ease grain shipping risk.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.