WTI declines as US, Iran avoids further escalation, rising OPEC+ output

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Feb 1, 2026Oil settles down over 4% on US-Iran de-escalation, easing supply worries | Reuters-1.6%
• Mar 27, 2026Crude oil futures decline as US extends Iran peace deal deadline - The HinduBusinessLine+17.8%
• Apr 1, 2026Oil Declines as US, Israel Seek to Ease Concerns Over Iran War-6.6%
• Aug 10, 2017OPEC production rises again to above its output ceiling - The Korea Herald-5.6%
• Feb 2, 2026Oil prices fall nearly 5%, below $62/bbl on US‑Iran de‑escalation - The Economic Times-1.6%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Feb 1, 2026Oil settles down over 4% on US-Iran de-escalation, easing supply worries | Reuters-3.1%
• Mar 27, 2026Crude oil futures decline as US extends Iran peace deal deadline - The HinduBusinessLine+6.6%
• Apr 1, 2026Oil Declines as US, Israel Seek to Ease Concerns Over Iran War-12.2%
• Aug 10, 2017OPEC production rises again to above its output ceiling - The Korea Herald-4.0%
• Feb 2, 2026Oil prices fall nearly 5%, below $62/bbl on US‑Iran de‑escalation - The Economic Times-3.1%