OPEC said its members' July output rose by 173,000 bpd to 32.9 million bpd, above the 32.5 million bpd ceiling agreed in November. Output also exceeded estimated OPEC demand of 32.4 million bpd, and New York crude traded near $49.89.
Output above both the ceiling and demand signals a growing surplus, which is bearish for crude prices and energy costs.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.