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A strong El Niño is already in place, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures about 2°C above normal from August through October, the second-warmest on record for that period. The North Carolina climate outlook expects the event to last through most of winter and to bring changes to temperatures, precipitation and drought conditions.
A strong El Niño tends to shift rainfall patterns across major crop regions, which can affect planting and yield outlooks for grains and oilseeds in the coming season. The direct price effect for feed buyers is still uncertain at this stage.
climate.ncsu.eduNorth Carolina State Climate OfficeNov 11, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
