The American Soybean Association president warned that a petition from the governors of Alabama and Louisiana asking EPA to exempt 2027 Renewable Fuel Standard volume requirements creates uncertainty for producers. He said granting the exemptions could hurt soybean processing and demand, including at a new Wisconsin crush plant that recently broke ground.
Lower biofuel blending mandates would reduce demand for soybean oil and corn used in ethanol, which is bearish for soy complex and corn prices. The risk is mainly to future crush expansion and domestic demand.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.