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Fertiliser contracts are being set now for 2027 and 2028 as the Gulf supplies a large share of seaborne urea, sulfur and ammonia. Qatar has halted urea, ammonia and sulfur production after damage to its plants, and the World Bank projects urea up nearly 60% this year.
Fertiliser bought this autumn is applied in spring and sets the 2027 harvest size, so higher input costs either cut yields or pass through into crop prices. Reopening the strait this winter is unlikely to reverse the price level before 2028, supporting grain and oilseed prices over the medium term.
geopolitiqs.comNov 11, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
