
December Chicago wheat rose 1.1% to $5.99 1/2 a bushel after Russia-Ukraine talks failed to produce an agreement to reopen Black Sea shipping. AgResource said conflict escalation is possible as both sides seek leverage, which could cut Russia's monthly wheat exports from their estimated 3 million metric tons.
Soybeans edged up and December corn fell 0.2%.
With Black Sea grain transit still unsafe, Russian and Ukrainian export flows remain constrained, supporting wheat prices and tightening supply for feed buyers. Any new attacks on Baltic export ports would add further upside risk.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.