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BCA Research expects a positive fundamental wheat outlook for 2027, driven by a potential strong El Niño and a fertilizer squeeze linked to Hormuz. Russian strikes on Ukraine's Odesa port add near-term upside risk, and wheat trades near $6 per bushel, about 22% below its September peak.
Weather risk in 2027 and reduced fertilizer availability could cut yields, supporting wheat prices. Port attacks in the Black Sea add near-term supply risk.
bcaresearch.comJose Yanes, Research AnalystNov 11, 2026After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
