Black Sea may hold back world wheat supplies into 2026

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 18, 2017Freeze, Snow Effects Likely Cut into World’s High Quality Wheat Supply - U.S. Wheat Associates+3.0%
• Apr 4, 2020Wheat Market Stabilizes, as the Black Sea Weather Remains Dry+2.3%
• May 2, 2017Grain prices: wheat futures bounce back - 02 May 2017 Premium-2.3%
• Mar 18, 2025CBOT wheat prices rise amid moisture shortage in the Black Sea region-1.0%
• May 20, 2024Wheat Closes up 38¢ | Monday, May 20, 2024+19.7%

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• May 18, 2017Freeze, Snow Effects Likely Cut into World’s High Quality Wheat Supply - U.S. Wheat Associates+1.5%
• Apr 4, 2020Wheat Market Stabilizes, as the Black Sea Weather Remains Dry+4.7%
• May 2, 2017Grain prices: wheat futures bounce back - 02 May 2017 Premium-4.5%
• Mar 18, 2025CBOT wheat prices rise amid moisture shortage in the Black Sea region-4.5%
• May 20, 2024Wheat Closes up 38¢ | Monday, May 20, 2024+9.0%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.