Freeze, Snow Effects Likely Cut into World’s High Quality Wheat Supply

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Oct 17, 2019Crop Quality Concerns, Minimal Farmer Selling Drive U.S. Spring Wheat Export Prices - U.S. Wheat Associates-0.4%
• Feb 8, 2018U.S. Crop Conditions Fall as Drought Conditions Worsen - U.S. Wheat Associates-2.3%
• Apr 23, 2025Black Sea may hold back world wheat supplies into 2026-5.6%
• Jan 11, 2018Cold Temperatures in HRW Country Gets Attention; Dry Conditions Could Be Worse - U.S. Wheat Associates-2.5%
• Aug 25, 2023Latest Canadian Durum Wheat, Soy, and Canola production estimates raise supply and quality concerns-3.5%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Dec 14, 2017World Wheat Conditions Roundup - U.S. Wheat Associates+1.3%
• Oct 17, 2019Crop Quality Concerns, Minimal Farmer Selling Drive U.S. Spring Wheat Export Prices - U.S. Wheat Associates-1.5%
• Feb 8, 2018U.S. Crop Conditions Fall as Drought Conditions Worsen - U.S. Wheat Associates-0.5%
• Apr 23, 2025Black Sea may hold back world wheat supplies into 2026-1.8%
• Jan 11, 2018Cold Temperatures in HRW Country Gets Attention; Dry Conditions Could Be Worse - U.S. Wheat Associates-0.4%