
India’s 2026/27 wheat and rice production outlook remains steady, supported by favourable soil conditions and higher wheat acreage. Monsoon rainfall was 13% below the long-period average, contributing to weather-related pressure on corn, oilseeds and cotton; the outlook also notes improved prospects in Argentina, Australia and Kazakhstan and drought and heat risks elsewhere.
Weather-related setbacks could tighten Indian corn and oilseed supplies and support prices, while stable wheat and rice output limits upward supply pressure in those markets.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 31 past neutral weather events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.