The "Grain Tap Shut-Off" Is a Freight Trade, Not a Wheat Trade

Black Sea shipping activity fell 37% year over year in October, as attacks disrupted grain ports and vessels serving both Russia and Ukraine. Russia's wheat shipments more than halved in the first quarter of the marketing year, while AMIS lowered its global wheat-trade forecast but raised its production and ending-stock forecasts; the article argues that stranded grain is weighing on prices at origin rather than creating a global shortage.