
Turkey will raise Bosphorus and Dardanelles passage fees 15% from July 1, 2025, to $5.83 per ton, the fourth stage of revisions tied to gold prices. The fee has risen more than sevenfold since 2022 from $0.80 per ton.
The higher transit fee adds roughly $2 to $3 per ton to Black Sea grain freight, slightly lifting FOB costs for Ukrainian and Russian cargoes and modestly supporting freight rates, though the effect is small relative to other drivers.
After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.