European wholesale gas prices rose on November 11, with the Dutch TTF front-month contract up 2.7% to €86.99/MWh and the UK NBP contract also gaining 2.7%. Renewed attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz revived concerns about disruption to energy shipments and lifted prices after a recent decline.
Shipping disruption around Hormuz could constrain LNG and other energy flows, adding a risk premium to gas prices. Higher gas costs can raise energy and production expenses for feed and agriculture supply chains.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.