Dollar gains as hot inflation, hawkish Fed talk lift rate-hike bets

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Oct 31, 2022Dollar gains on Fed rate hike expectations-0.1%
• Oct 14, 2026Dollar hits fresh 18-month high as hot inflation boosts Fed hike expectation-0.3%
• Oct 28, 2022Gold down 1% as dollar, yields rise on Fed rate-hike bets+1.2%
• Jun 18, 2026US dollar rally builds as hawkish Fed meeting stokes rate-hike bets | The Straits Times+1.4%
• Jun 14, 2017Dollar surges as hawkish Fed raises rates maintains rate outlook talks balance sheet reduction+0.6%

After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jun 18, 2026US dollar rally builds as hawkish Fed meeting stokes rate-hike bets | The Straits Times-1.8%
• Feb 11, 2022Rate hike bets support the dollar amid surging US inflation - Markets - Business Recorder-1.1%
• Jun 19, 2026Euro steadies as the US Dollar eases, but hawkish Fed bets limit upside-0.6%
• Aug 31, 2026Euro holds modest gains as US Dollar lacks momentum, Eurozone inflation in focus+0.2%
• Dec 12, 2024Dollar higher on fresh inflation data, euro lower after ECB rate cut-0.4%