In September 2026, Mexican beef and veal shipments to the United States were 17% higher than in September 2024, while U.S. imports of Mexican feeder cattle were only about 16% of their 2024 level. Veterinary restrictions tied to New World screwworm have sharply reduced cattle movements, prompting U.S. buyers to import more beef instead; border crossings have begun reopening gradually.
Fewer Mexican feeder cattle can tighten supplies for U.S. feedlots and support feeder-cattle prices, while increased beef imports partly cushion the impact on beef availability.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.