
The USDA reversed earlier signals and said it does not expect to resume Mexican cattle imports before the year-end holidays. The suspension followed the detection of New World screwworm in southern Mexico.
Mexican feeder cattle normally supply US feedlots, so a longer closure tightens feeder supplies and supports cattle prices.
After 122 past bullish disease events, FCATTLE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, LCATTLE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.