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US cattle futures rose sharply after the USDA halted imports of Mexican cattle over the spread of New World screwworm. The U.S. typically imports more than a million cattle a year from Mexico, and domestic supplies are already at their lowest in decades.
Losing Mexican feeder cattle tightens an already short US supply, which supports feeder and live cattle prices and lifts beef prices further.
reuters.comKylie Madry, Heather SchlitzMay 12, 2025After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
