
India is pursuing higher domestic fertilizer manufacturing capacity and more diversified import sources to reduce reliance on imported DAP and other phosphatic fertilizers. Indian companies have agreements with Saudi Arabia’s Maaden for 3.1 million tonnes of DAP/NPK annually from 2025–26 through 2029–30, alongside agreements or memoranda involving suppliers including Russia, Morocco and the UAE; domestic capacity proposals and freight support for single super phosphate are also part of the plan.
Long-term imports and prospective domestic capacity could make India’s phosphate fertilizer supply more resilient and reduce exposure to disruptions from any single supplier. If the capacity plans translate into additional output, they could ease import demand and put downward pressure on prices over time.
After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.