
India is considering shifting its phosphate strategy toward nano-DAP to cut conventional DAP bag offtake, following its nano-urea push that reduced urea imports. DAP imports rose 6% in April-January, and the government raised the phosphorus subsidy for kharif 2024.
If India substitutes nano-DAP for conventional bags, its import demand for DAP could fall, which is bearish for global DAP prices, though the higher phosphorus subsidy partly supports domestic use.
After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.