
Indian fertilizer minister Mansukh Mandaviya said India would effectively set the price of imported DAP in 2024 and pressure suppliers against high prices. He said DAP would fall below $650 per tonne that month and return to pre-Russia-Ukraine-war levels by end of March.
Imported DAP had dropped to $743 per tonne in November 2022 from a $945 peak in July.
Government pressure on import prices and a planned alternative fertilizer push could weaken global DAP demand from India, a major buyer, pressuring phosphate prices lower.
After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.