Egyptian granular urea export prices rose to $535 per ton FOB in November 2026, about 17% above September’s $457. Reduced natural-gas supplies to nitrogen fertilizer producers are contributing to the increase; Kima reported a 20% gas-supply cut from November 1, while producers are adjusting output to available gas.
Gas constraints can limit fertilizer plant operating rates and reduce Egypt’s exportable urea supply, supporting prices. A prolonged disruption could tighten international availability further.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.