The US average gasoline price fell to $3.98 per gallon, down about 17 cents in a week, as crude prices eased. Diesel averaged $6.13 per gallon, with declines lagging because US distillate inventories were about 13% below the five-year average in late October and are expected to remain especially tight in the East this winter.
Low distillate stocks and winter heating demand are supporting diesel prices even as cheaper crude and seasonal factors ease gasoline costs. Persistently high diesel can sustain freight and farm-input costs, while lower crude prices may pressure energy markets.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.