
Argentina's 2023-24 soybean crop is forecast at 49.7 million tonnes, nearly double the prior year, and Argentina is expected to regain the top spot in soymeal exports. USDA projects Brazil's meal export share falling to 29.4% and US share rising to 20.5%.
Argentina's crushing industry aims to return to about 36 million tonnes of annual crush.
A much larger Argentine crop and crush increases global meal supply and export competition, which pressures soymeal prices. Stronger Brazilian and US competition for market share limits any export premium.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.