
Oil steadied in early Asian trading after a steep decline, with Brent near $92 and WTI around $86. Traders weighed hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war against continued uncertainty over negotiations and supply disruptions.
A resolution could ease Middle Eastern supply risks and pressure crude prices, while continued uncertainty may limit further losses.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.