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Uncertainty about El Niño’s effects and rainfall patterns led some Brazilian soybean farmers to reduce sales in October, helping limit the fall in prices, according to Cepea. Excess rain in the South raised questions about crop progress and possible shifts from soybeans to corn, while irregular rainfall and low soil moisture kept growers in the Center-West and Matopiba cautious; planting had reached 54.3% by October 30.
Reduced farmer selling can tighten near-term soybean availability and support prices, while weather-related yield uncertainty adds risk to supply. A possible shift from soybean to corn area could also affect the balance between the two crops.
agrolink.com.brAline MerladeteNov 10, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
