Spot dollar reaches highest level since July 2025 amid mix of local and external risks

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Apr 25, 2022Brazilian real tumbles amid rallying dollar and local tensions+3.5%
• Apr 28, 2022Global shares rise as earnings boost, U.S. dollar hits 20-year high-0.2%
• Apr 16, 2024Resurgent Dollar, Higher Yields Send EM Currencies to 2024 Lows - Bloomberg+0.6%
• Jul 28, 2025Dollar approaches R$5,60 again, driven by external factors after agreement between the US and EU | Brasil 247-0.4%
• Dec 1, 2025Dollar closes higher against the real, bucking the trend abroad | Brasil 247+1.3%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Nov 9, 2016Dollar rises vs yen to highest since July 27+3.1%
• Apr 28, 2022Dollar index hits highest level since 2002+0.1%
• Feb 1, 2021U.S. dollar reaches six-week high on weaker euro, Swiss franc and yen+0.3%
• Aug 11, 2021Dollar hits highest since April ahead of inflation test+0.1%
• Jul 28, 2026Vietnam's Central Exchange Rate Reaches All-Time High Amid Dollar Surge-0.9%