Euro slips below 1.1200 as hot US CPI supports Fed hike odds

After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Nov 28, 2025Euro Slips Below $1.16 on Mixed EU Data+0.6%
• Jun 17, 2026Euro folds as the Fed trades cuts for hikes-2.3%
• May 18, 2026Euro declines as risk aversion, Fed rate hike odds increase-0.2%
• Jun 9, 2022Stocks, euro slip as ECB sets rate hikes, CPI looms | Reuters-3.3%
• Feb 15, 2019EUR/USD falls below 1.1250 on comments from Coeure+0.5%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Nov 28, 2025Euro Slips Below $1.16 on Mixed EU Data-0.5%
• Jan 29, 2026GBP/USD slides below 1.3780 as Fed hold lifts the Dollar+0.6%
• Jun 17, 2026Euro folds as the Fed trades cuts for hikes+1.8%
• May 18, 2026Euro declines as risk aversion, Fed rate hike odds increase+0.0%
• Jun 9, 2022Stocks, euro slip as ECB sets rate hikes, CPI looms | Reuters+2.7%