
Brent briefly fell below $90 a barrel, its lowest level since August, as traders weighed hopes for de-escalation between the United States and Iran. Prices were also pressured by recovering Hormuz flows and Middle Eastern producers cutting prices to attract buyers, while Trump said he would hold off on further strikes but maintain the naval blockade.
Easing concerns about Middle East supply disruptions and the return of supply reduce the risk premium in crude, weighing on oil prices and potentially lowering energy-related feed and freight costs.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.