
USDA forecast U.S. soybean production 23 million bushels below analysts’ average estimate and projected ending supplies 15 million bushels lower, against expectations for an increase. It also cut U.S. corn production and stocks by more than expected, prompting sharp rallies in both markets; wheat futures rose as well, though gains were limited by expectations for larger global supplies.
Smaller-than-expected U.S. harvest and stock forecasts tighten expected corn and soybean availability and support prices. Wheat’s advance was more constrained by the prospect of ample global supply.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.