Chicago grain markets were recovering slightly after the previous session’s losses as traders awaited the USDA’s monthly WASDE report. Traders anticipated higher U.S. soybean yields and a downward adjustment to corn, while U.S. soybean and corn harvests were reported at 92% and 81%, respectively; Brazilian soybean planting had reached 66.8%.
Expectations of higher soybean yields could weigh on soybean prices, while a lower corn estimate could support corn if confirmed by the report. The crop progress figures also inform expectations for near-term U.S. supply.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.