University of Wisconsin River Falls economist Brenda Boetel said the January 12 USDA supply and demand reports contained surprises, including higher carryover and a larger Brazilian production estimate, but tighter-than-expected supplies. Corn rose about 13 cents and soybeans about 27 cents within an hour of the release.
Tighter US balance sheets lifted corn and soybean prices sharply, though the economist doesn't expect corn to keep climbing long term. Buyers face higher feed input costs in the near term.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.