
Soybeans from the Hopelchén area of Campeche are being sold at 9,200 pesos per tonne in neighboring Yucatán, the strongest opening-harvest price in several years. Producers attribute tight local supplies to prolonged drought, reporting crop losses and an almost 50% decline in the 2026 harvest in the area.
Drought-driven production losses constrain regional soybean availability and have helped lift local prices, supporting a bullish bias for soybeans and potentially soybean meal supply from the affected crop.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.