
The USDA lowered its forecast for U.S. soybean ending stocks by 15 million bushels to 300 million, mainly reflecting a 25-million-bushel increase in projected exports, despite slightly higher production. Soybean futures rose 30–40 cents, while soybean meal and soybean oil futures also gained; the USDA also reported a 150,000-tonne private soybean sale to Mexico for 2026/27.
Higher projected exports tighten the U.S. balance sheet and support soybean prices, with gains also extending to meal and oil. The sale to Mexico adds evidence of export demand, although the stocks reduction is the main price driver.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.