
Soybean and soymeal futures hit session highs after NOPA reported August crush of 205.456 million bushels, an 11-month low, and soyoil stocks at their lowest since November 2024. Conab put Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop at 181.64 million tons, below USDA's 186 million, and projected a record Brazilian corn crop.
A smaller crush and thin soyoil stocks tighten US supply, and biofuel demand supports oil prices. The Brazilian soybean forecast gap is a bullish factor for US export demand.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.