
USDA’s November estimates cut the U.S. 2026 corn yield to 179.6 bushels per acre and production to 15.893 billion bushels, down 141 million bushels from October. Soybean yield rose to 53.3 bushels per acre and production increased by 12 million bushels to 4.574 billion; the report characterized U.S. ending stocks as bullish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat.
The lower corn crop estimate and tighter projected U.S. ending stocks support corn prices. Higher soybean production was offset by a lower ending-stocks outlook, also supportive for soybeans, while wheat’s neutral stocks outlook offers little direct impetus.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.