The Rosario Board of Trade raised its Argentine wheat production estimate from 21 million to 23.8 million tonnes as early harvest yields exceeded last year’s pace. The harvest had reached 6.7% of the suitable area, and the improved outlook points to more wheat becoming available in coming months.
A larger crop would increase Argentina’s exportable supply and add bearish pressure to wheat prices, all else equal.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.