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AMIS raised its 2026/27 global wheat production forecast to 819.1 million tonnes and its corn forecast to 1.318 billion tonnes, citing improved production prospects in several countries. It expects wheat trade to fall as shipments from Russia and Ukraine face logistical constraints, while wheat ending stocks rise; corn utilization was also raised on stronger bioethanol demand in Brazil and the US.
Higher output and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, but reduced Black Sea export flows could limit wheat availability in import markets and support prices. Stronger ethanol use adds demand support for corn.
fastmarkets.comEoin HughesNov 10, 2026After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
