USDA's January WASDE tightened its view of US wheat balances through lower domestic stocks, but raised global supply and ending stocks after Black Sea revisions. Ukraine's stocks rose 2.2 million tonnes as feed and residual use was revised back to 2021-22.
CBOT soft red wheat fell from an early high of $6.24 to about $6.14 per bushel after the report.
Higher global wheat supplies and stocks, led by Ukraine, add bearish pressure to world wheat prices and ease feed grain costs for buyers. The US tightening offers only partial support.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.