
Brazil’s Inmet forecasts above-average rainfall in the South and parts of the Midwest and Southeast, but below-average rainfall in much of the North and Northeast from November 2026 through January 2027. High temperatures and very strong El Niño conditions are expected, creating risks of excess moisture, drought, and crop disease; the forecast says conditions may favor soybean development in parts of the Center-West.
The uneven rainfall outlook could disrupt planting and crop development in some areas while benefiting others, leaving production prospects mixed. Weather-related risk may support grain prices if dry or excessively wet conditions cause material crop losses.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 31 past neutral weather events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.