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European gas prices fell by nearly €20/MWh in ten days after rising above €100/MWh, as prospects for an Iran ceasefire reduced energy-market risk concerns. Lower gas costs could improve European nitrogen fertilizer producers’ margins and support a gradual production restart; limited farm demand could also force producers to lower price expectations, while global urea trade remains affected by limited Egyptian and Algerian availability and cautious Indian buying.
Cheaper gas reduces nitrogen fertilizer production costs and may increase European output, putting downward pressure on urea prices. Weak agricultural demand adds to that pressure, though restricted export availability from Egypt and Algeria could temper the easing.
lafranceagricole.frNov 10, 2026After 59 past bearish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.0% to +5.2%), and -2.0% over 20.
After 113 past macro events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.3%), and +3.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
