
Brent crude fell below $90 a barrel for the first time since August, extending a nearly 6% decline from the previous day. Traders responded to Trump’s comments that further strikes on Iran would not be necessary and to growing expectations of a possible end to the conflict.
Lower perceived risk of Middle East supply disruptions is removing a geopolitical premium from crude prices, reducing energy-cost pressure on feed production and transport. The story is bearish for Brent crude.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.