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Oil fell about 5% on February 2 after Trump said Iran was seriously talking with Washington, signalling de-escalation. Brent traded near $65.86 and WTI near $61.79 after both had posted their biggest monthly gains since 2022 in January.
Falling supply disruptions in the US and Kazakhstan also weighed on prices.
The fading geopolitical premium and the return of supply to the market reduce crude costs for feed producers. Analysts say the market is fundamentally bearish, which points to further downside if the tensions stay eased.
energynow.comFeb 1, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Oil fell about 5% on Feb 2 as Trump said Iran was seriously talking with Washington, so the geopolitical risk premium came out after January's big rally.
