Hedge funds cut bets on rising WTI prices to the lowest level in more than a year, with positioning down to a level last seen in 2015. Saudi Arabia said OPEC is in a produce-as-much-as-you-can mode to offset Iran sanctions and has raised output to 10.7 million barrels a day.
Expanded OPEC supply to offset Iranian barrels points to softer crude prices, which lowers energy and freight costs for feed buyers but reduces support for biofuel-linked vegetable oils.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Hedge funds cut bullish oil bets to multi-year lows while Saudi Arabia signaled more output, reflecting sentiment and positioning pressure.