Oil prices slipped on Sept 29 after Iraq's Kurdistan region resumed crude exports via Turkey following a 2.5-year halt, and OPEC+ planned another November output hike. Brent was down 0.6% near $69.70 and WTI about $65.
Roughly 180,000-230,000 bpd of returning Kurdish supply plus OPEC+ increases add to crude supply, bearish for energy prices and related agricultural input and biofuel costs.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.