OPEC's Kuwaiti oil minister said the November meeting will decide whether to extend or terminate the current output cut agreement. An OPEC monitoring committee met in Vienna as compliance slipped, with IEA data showing OPEC compliance at 75% in July and 470,000 bpd of overproduction across the 22 pledging producers.
Slipping compliance and talk of ending the cuts raise the risk of more crude supply, which pressures crude prices and, through energy costs, sentiment in feed-related markets.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.